Time series analysis on the stock price of Tesla Inc.

This is a class project for STAT 153, Introduction to Time Series, in Fall 2021. We explore different univariate time series models and select one to fit and predict the daily close price of Tesla Inc. in the stock market. We collect the stock market data from Yahoo Finance. After careful model consideration and selection, we select $ARIMA(1, 2, 1)×(0, 0, 0)[0]$ as our best mode. However, our best model still gives relatively inaccurate predictions. Our analysis demonstrates that using a purely statistical and mathematical tool to model the stock price data might be unrealistic. We provide suggestions for future research on modeling stock price data in the conclusion section.

Here is the full report.